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Brown Island: Soaring Home Values and Near-Total Homeownership in Jacksonville
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Brown Island, a small neighborhood in Jacksonville, Florida, has undergone significant changes in homeownership rates and property values over the past decade. This community has experienced a remarkable increase in owner-occupied housing, coupled with a steady rise in average home prices and fluctuating average rent prices.
The trend of homeownership in Brown Island has been notably positive. In 2013, the percentage of owner-occupied homes was 79%. This figure increased steadily over the years, reaching an impressive 99% by 2022. Concurrently, average home prices in the neighborhood have shown a consistent upward trajectory. In 2013, the average home price was $285,814, which increased to $575,738 by 2022, representing a substantial 101.4% growth over this period.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Brown Island appears to follow the general trend of lower interest rates encouraging higher homeownership. For instance, when interest rates were relatively low between 2013 and 2016 (ranging from 0.11% to 0.4%), the neighborhood saw a slight dip in homeownership from 79% to 72%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership in Brown Island paradoxically increased to 99%. This suggests that other local factors may have had a stronger influence on homeownership trends in this particular neighborhood.
Conversely, the percentage of renters in Brown Island has decreased dramatically. In 2013, renters occupied 20% of the housing units, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to just 1%. Interestingly, despite the declining renter population, average rent prices remained relatively stable. In 2013, the average rent was $810, which increased slightly to $854 in 2014 and 2015, before gradually declining to $825 in 2022. This stability in rent prices, despite the significant decrease in renter occupancy, could be attributed to the overall increase in property values and the limited supply of rental properties in the area.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Brown Island continued its upward trend, reaching $594,680 in 2023 and further increasing to $627,089 in 2024. This represents a 3.3% increase from 2022 to 2023 and a 5.5% increase from 2023 to 2024. Notably, federal interest rates also saw a significant rise, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which could potentially impact future homeownership trends in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, it is anticipated that average home prices in Brown Island will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to the higher interest rates. The average home price could potentially reach around $750,000 by 2029. Rent prices, which have remained relatively stable in recent years, may see a modest increase to approximately $900 per month by 2029, assuming the current trends continue.
In summary, Brown Island has experienced a remarkable shift towards homeownership, with owner-occupied housing reaching near-total dominance by 2022. This trend has been accompanied by significant appreciation in average home values, more than doubling over a decade. Despite the dramatic decrease in renter occupancy, average rent prices have remained relatively stable. The neighborhood's real estate market has shown resilience and growth, even in the face of rising interest rates, suggesting strong local demand for homeownership in this Jacksonville community.
