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Brentwood, Missouri: Property Crime Trends Outpace Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brentwood, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 27.5%, from 320 to 408 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 2.68%, from 7,984 to 8,198 residents, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth significantly.
Burglary trends in the city have been volatile. In 2010, there were 26 burglaries, which increased to 30 by 2022, representing a 15.38% increase. However, this overall increase masks significant fluctuations, with burglaries dropping as low as 12 in 2015 and 2017. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.26 in 2010 to 3.66 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a more consistent upward trend. Incidents increased from 284 in 2010 to 333 in 2022, a 17.25% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 35.57 to 40.62 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents also increased substantially, from 0.25% to 0.43%, indicating a growing concentration of this crime type within the municipality relative to the rest of Missouri.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited the most dramatic increase among property crimes. Incidents rose from 10 in 2010 to 45 in 2022, a staggering 350% increase. The rate per 1,000 people jumped from 1.25 to 5.49. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts more than doubled, from 0.08% to 0.19%, highlighting a significant localized issue.
Arson cases remained relatively rare but showed some fluctuation. From 2010 to 2022, the number of arsons remained constant at 1 per year when reported, with several years showing no incidents. The rate per 1,000 people stayed around 0.12 when arson occurred. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting a slight increase in relative occurrence.
Examining correlations, a strong relationship emerges between rising property crime rates and increasing population density, which grew from 4,087 people per square mile in 2010 to 4,197 in 2022. Interestingly, the rise in crime rates coincided with fluctuations in median income, which peaked at $100,174 in 2016 before declining to $91,512 in 2022. This suggests that economic factors may play a role in the crime trends observed.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes. Based on current trajectories, total property crimes could reach approximately 480-500 incidents by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to see the most significant growth, potentially doubling again to around 90 incidents annually. Larceny theft is expected to maintain its upward trend, possibly reaching 380-400 cases per year. Burglaries may stabilize or show a slight increase to around 35-40 incidents annually.
In summary, Brentwood has experienced a notable increase in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most concerning trends are in motor vehicle theft and larceny, which have shown substantial increases both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state totals. These trends, coupled with the city's changing economic landscape, suggest a need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address the rising property crime rates in Brentwood.
