Robbery trends show a more mixed picture. In 2010, there were 10 reported robberies, which peaked at 19 in 2020, representing a 90% increase. This translates to a rate increase from 0.39 to 0.70 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state robbery cases ranged from 0.01% to 0.05%. By 2022, robberies had decreased to 12, suggesting a potential stabilization or slight improvement in recent years.

Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic increase among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 38 reported cases, which surged to 153 in 2017, representing a 302.6% increase. This translates to a rate increase from 1.49 to 5.63 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases rose from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2017. Although the number decreased to 76 cases in 2022, it still represents a 100% increase from 2010 levels, indicating a persistent challenge.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crimes and population density. As the population density increased from 3,141 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,365 in 2022, violent crimes also saw a significant uptick. Additionally, the Hispanic population percentage increased from 80% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in violent crimes. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic changes should be considered within the broader context of socioeconomic factors.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. Aggravated assault, being the most prevalent violent crime, is likely to remain a significant concern, potentially fluctuating around 80-100 cases annually. Robbery rates may stabilize around 10-15 incidents per year, while rape cases could potentially decrease to 3-5 annually if recent downward trends persist. Murder rates are challenging to predict due to their low frequency, but may remain at 0-2 cases per year.

In summary, Brawley has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults. While recent years have shown some improvement, the overall trend remains concerning. The city's law enforcement and community leaders should focus on strategies to address aggravated assault and robbery, which have shown the most persistent increases. Additionally, understanding the relationship between population density, demographic changes, and crime rates could inform more effective crime prevention strategies for Brawley moving forward.