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Boulder Mountain: Rising Home Values and High Ownership Rates in Mesa, Arizona
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Boulder Mountain, a neighborhood in Mesa, Arizona, is characterized by its high rate of homeownership and fluctuating property values. Over the past decade, this area has experienced significant changes in its housing market, with a general trend towards increased homeownership and rising average home prices.
The homeownership rate in Boulder Mountain has shown a steady increase over the years, rising from 85% in 2013 to an impressive 91% in 2022. This upward trend in homeownership coincides with a substantial increase in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $300,437, which grew dramatically to $656,565 by 2022, representing a 118.5% increase over this period. This correlation suggests that as property values appreciated, more residents chose to invest in homeownership.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in Boulder Mountain. During periods of lower interest rates, such as from 2013 to 2016 when rates ranged from 0.11% to 0.40%, homeownership increased from 85% to 89%. This aligns with the general trend of lower interest rates encouraging homeownership due to more affordable financing options. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, homeownership rates stabilized around 90-91%, indicating a potential ceiling effect or a mature market for owner-occupied properties.
The rental market in Boulder Mountain has seen an inverse relationship to homeownership trends. As homeownership increased, the percentage of renters decreased from 15% in 2013 to 9% in 2022. Despite this decline in the renter population, average rent prices have shown volatility. In 2013, the average rent was $1,284, which peaked at $1,409 in 2017 before declining to $1,012 in 2022. This fluctuation in rent prices, despite a decreasing renter population, may be attributed to broader economic factors or changes in the quality and type of rental properties available.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Boulder Mountain for 2023 was $641,004, showing a slight decrease from the 2022 peak. However, in 2024, the average home price has rebounded to $655,247. This recent trend occurs against the backdrop of higher federal interest rates, which stood at 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially influencing buyer behavior and market dynamics.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Boulder Mountain will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace than seen in recent years. The high homeownership rate is likely to remain stable or increase slightly, potentially reaching 92-93% by 2029. Average rent prices are expected to stabilize and potentially increase in line with inflation and demand from the small but persistent renter population.
In summary, Boulder Mountain has transformed into a predominantly owner-occupied neighborhood with significantly appreciated property values over the past decade. The inverse relationship between homeownership and rental rates, coupled with the impact of federal interest rates, has shaped a unique housing market dynamic in this Mesa, Arizona community. As the neighborhood continues to evolve, it will likely maintain its character as a desirable area for homeowners, with potential for further, though more modest, growth in property values.
