Motor vehicle theft trends in the city present a more complex picture. The number of incidents increased from 3 in 2010 to 14 in 2022, a substantial 366.67% increase. When adjusted for population, the rate of motor vehicle theft per 1,000 residents rose from 0.28 in 2010 to 1.43 in 2022. This increase is particularly notable as it occurred during a period of population decline. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that the rise in motor vehicle thefts outpaced statewide trends.

Arson incidents in the city have remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. From no reported cases in 2010, arson incidents peaked at 3 in 2017 before settling at 2 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.20 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson figures also increased notably, from 0% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, suggesting that arson has become a relatively more significant issue in the city compared to the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and overall property crime rates. As the median income increased from $46,035 in 2013 to $50,808 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crimes, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. Additionally, there seems to be a positive correlation between homeownership rates and reduced property crime. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 69% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, overall property crime rates declined.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes, with some variations across categories. Burglary and larceny-theft are projected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft is predicted to stabilize or potentially increase slightly if current trends persist. Arson incidents are expected to remain low but may fluctuate year to year due to their infrequent nature.

In conclusion, Boonville has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement, occurring alongside increases in median income and homeownership rates, suggests a strengthening community fabric. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the slight uptick in arson incidents warrant continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on these areas while building upon the successes in reducing other property crimes will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.