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Bolingbrook's Decade of Crime: Rising Murder Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bolingbrook, located in Illinois, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city decreased by 0.62%, from 161 to 162 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 3.75%, from 72,719 to 75,444 residents.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability over time. In 2011, there was 1 murder, representing 0.17% of the state's total. This number remained relatively stable until 2015 and 2016, when it increased to 2 murders per year, accounting for 0.31% and 0.21% of the state's total, respectively. By 2022, the number of murders rose to 5, representing 0.64% of the state's total. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.014 in 2011 to 0.066 in 2022, a substantial rise of 371%.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a general upward trend. In 2011, there were 25 reported rapes, accounting for 1.44% of the state's total. This number decreased to 16 in 2012 but rose again in subsequent years. By 2022, there were 40 reported rapes, representing 1.13% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.34 in 2011 to 0.53 in 2022, a 55.9% increase. This trend suggests a growing concern for sexual violence in the city.
Robbery rates have shown a general decline over the observed period. In 2011, there were 49 robberies, accounting for 0.27% of the state's total. This number fluctuated in subsequent years but showed an overall downward trend. By 2022, there were 24 robberies, representing 0.22% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.67 in 2011 to 0.32 in 2022, a 52.2% decrease. This trend indicates an improvement in property-related violent crimes.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown some fluctuation but remained relatively stable. In 2011, there were 86 aggravated assaults, accounting for 0.36% of the state's total. This number peaked at 118 in 2013 but then declined. By 2022, there were 93 aggravated assaults, representing 0.73% of the state's total. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 1.18 in 2011 to 1.23 in 2022, a 4.2% increase.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 2,918 people per square mile in 2011 to 3,027 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally remained within a similar range. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between median rent and violent crime rates, with both showing an overall increase over the observed period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a slight increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The murder rate may continue to rise, potentially reaching 7-8 murders per year. Rape incidents could increase to around 45-50 per year. Robbery rates may stabilize or continue their slight downward trend, potentially decreasing to 20-22 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults might see a modest increase, possibly reaching 100-105 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Bolingbrook has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While robbery rates have decreased, murder and rape rates have shown concerning increases. The city's law enforcement and policymakers may need to focus on strategies to address these rising violent crime categories, particularly given the projected continued growth in population density.
