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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Blackburn, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2011 to 2019, the city experienced minimal property crime activity, with only two reported incidents in total. This low crime rate is particularly noteworthy when considering the population fluctuations during this time, which saw a decrease from 644 residents in 2011 to 513 in 2019, representing a 20.3% decline.
The burglary trend in the city is characterized by sporadic occurrences. There were two reported burglaries over the nine-year period: one in 2014 and another in 2018. In 2014, with a population of 563, the burglary rate was approximately 1.78 per 1,000 residents. In 2018, when the population had decreased to 490, the rate increased slightly to 2.04 per 1,000 residents. The burglary percentage of state crime was negligible in most years, with a slight increase to 0.01% in 2018. This suggests that while burglary incidents were rare, they had a more significant impact on the local crime rate due to the small population size.
Larceny-theft showed no reported incidents throughout the entire period from 2011 to 2019. This absence of larceny-theft is remarkable and suggests either highly effective prevention measures or potential underreporting. The consistent zero rate per 1,000 residents and 0% of state crime for larceny-theft indicates that this type of property crime was not a significant concern for the city during this period.
Similarly, motor vehicle theft reported no incidents from 2011 to 2019. The absence of motor vehicle thefts, maintained across varying population levels, suggests that this particular crime was not prevalent in the city. The consistent 0% contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics further underscores the city's uniqueness in this aspect of property crime.
Arson cases were also non-existent in the reported data for Blackburn from 2011 to 2019. The zero incidence rate per 1,000 residents and 0% contribution to state arson statistics remained constant throughout the period, indicating that arson was not a significant issue for the community.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors, it's important to note that the extremely low crime rates make it challenging to establish strong correlations. However, one interesting observation is that the two burglary incidents occurred in years when the median income was relatively high. In 2014, when one burglary was reported, the median income was $54,192, and in 2018, with another burglary, it was $44,466. This could suggest that higher income levels might have made certain properties more attractive targets, although the sample size is too small to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited historical data and extremely low crime rates. However, based on the existing pattern, it's reasonable to project that property crime rates will likely remain very low, with possibly sporadic incidents of burglary occurring once every few years. The city may continue to see 0-1 property crimes annually, maintaining its status as a low-crime area.
In summary, Blackburn demonstrates an exceptionally low property crime rate, with only two reported incidents over a nine-year period. The sporadic nature of these crimes, coupled with the city's small and declining population, creates a unique profile where even single incidents can significantly impact crime rates per capita. The consistent absence of larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson suggests a community with strong social cohesion or effective crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates while addressing any underlying factors contributing to the occasional burglary will be crucial for ensuring continued safety and security for its residents.