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Black Mountain's Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small North Carolina Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Black Mountain, a small town in North Carolina, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes increased from 5 to 10, representing a 100% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 9,802 to 10,187, an increase of approximately 3.9%.
The murder rate in Black Mountain has remained relatively low, with only two reported cases in 2017, representing 0.57% of the state's total murders that year. This equates to a rate of 0.19 murders per 1,000 residents in 2017. In all other years from 2010 to 2021, there were no reported murders. The sporadic nature of these incidents makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it suggests that murder remains an infrequent occurrence in the city.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over the years. In 2011, there were 2 reported cases (0.17% of state total), increasing to 4 cases in 2020 (0.25% of state total), and further to 6 cases in 2021 (0.32% of state total). This represents a 200% increase from 2011 to 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.20 in 2011 to 0.59 in 2021, indicating a rising trend in relation to population growth.
Robbery rates have fluctuated over the years. The highest number of robberies was recorded in 2013 with 4 cases (0.06% of state total), while several years saw no reported robberies. In 2019, there were 3 robberies (0.05% of state total), but this dropped to 0 in both 2020 and 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.40 in 2013 and has since declined, reaching 0 in the most recent years.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes. In 2016, there were 10 reported cases (0.09% of state total), the highest in the dataset. This number decreased to 4 cases in 2021 (0.02% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.92 in 2016 and dropped to 0.39 in 2021. Despite these fluctuations, aggravated assault remains the most common violent crime in the city.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and the growth in population density. As the population density increased from 1,460 per square mile in 2010 to 1,517 per square mile in 2021, the total number of violent crimes also rose. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the increase in the white population percentage (from 85% in 2013 to 92% in 2021) and the overall increase in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the upward trend in total violent crimes, particularly in rape and aggravated assault cases. However, the rate of increase may slow down as the population growth rate appears to be stabilizing.
In summary, Black Mountain has experienced an overall increase in violent crimes over the past decade, primarily driven by rises in rape and aggravated assault incidents. While the absolute numbers remain relatively low, the rate of increase outpaces population growth, suggesting a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The town's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have some influence on these trends, although other factors not captured in this data may also play significant roles in shaping the local crime landscape.
