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Beverly's Violent Crime Trends: Small Population, Big Impact
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Beverly, located in New Jersey, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 122.22%, from 9 to 20 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 5.01%, from 2,634 to 2,502 residents, indicating a disproportionate rise in crime relative to population changes.
The murder rate in the city has shown notable volatility. From 2010 to 2015, there were no reported murders. However, in 2016 and 2020, the city recorded one murder each year, representing 0.44% and 0.43% of the state's total murders, respectively. In 2022, another murder occurred, accounting for 0.69% of New Jersey's murders. This translates to a murder rate of 0.40 per 1,000 residents in 2022, a significant increase from zero in earlier years. The sporadic nature of these incidents suggests they may be isolated events rather than indicative of a consistent trend.
Rape incidents in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting either zero or one case. The highest recorded percentage of state rapes was 0.19% in 2010. In 2022, no rapes were reported. The rape rate per 1,000 residents has fluctuated between 0 and 0.39 over the years, with no clear trend emerging due to the low number of incidents.
Robbery trends show more variation. The number of robberies peaked at 11 in 2016, representing 0.20% of state robberies. However, by 2022, this had decreased to just one incident, or 0.04% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents reached a high of 4.34 in 2016 but fell to 0.40 by 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assaults have shown the most concerning trend. From 6 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 18 in 2022, a 200% increase. The city's share of state aggravated assaults grew from 0.07% to 0.32% during this period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.28 in 2010 to 7.19 in 2022, representing a substantial rise in this form of violent crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the rise in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. As the white population percentage decreased from 61% in 2015 to 54% in 2022, and the Black population increased from 24% to 26%, violent crime rates rose. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic shifts alone do not explain the complex factors influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the upward trend in aggravated assaults if current conditions persist. The sporadic nature of murders makes them difficult to predict, but the city may experience one or two incidents within this period. Robbery rates are likely to remain low, while rape incidents may continue to fluctuate between zero and one per year.
In summary, Beverly has experienced a concerning increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, despite a declining population. The sporadic nature of more severe crimes like murder highlights the need for targeted interventions. While demographic shifts correlate with crime trends, a comprehensive approach considering multiple socioeconomic factors will be crucial for addressing the city's public safety challenges in the coming years.
