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Bergenfield's Declining Violent Crime: A Small New Jersey Borough's Success Story
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bergenfield, located in New Jersey, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total violent crimes, dropping from 30 incidents in 2010 to 12 in 2022, representing a 60% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the number of residents increasing from 26,586 in 2010 to 28,252 in 2022, a 6.27% rise.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low throughout the observed period. Only two murders were recorded, one in 2016 and another in 2019, both representing 0.44% and 0.64% of the state's total murders in those respective years. With such infrequent occurrences, the murder rate per 1,000 people has effectively been zero for most years, making it challenging to discern a meaningful trend. However, the fact that murders are so rare speaks to the overall safety of the community.
Rape incidents have also been infrequent, with only five reported cases between 2010 and 2022. The highest number of rapes (2) was reported in 2011, representing 0.41% of the state's total. In recent years, there was one reported case in 2015 (0.17% of state total), one in 2019 (0.14%), and one in 2022 (0.15%). The rape rate per 1,000 people has remained consistently low, fluctuating between 0 and 0.07 throughout the period.
Robbery trends show a marked decrease over time. In 2010, there were 9 robberies (0.11% of state total), which declined to just 2 incidents in 2022 (0.08% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.34 in 2010 to 0.07 in 2022, a 79.4% decrease. This significant reduction in robberies contributes substantially to the overall decline in violent crime in the city.
Aggravated assault cases have shown fluctuation but with a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 20 cases (0.23% of state total), which decreased to 9 cases in 2022 (0.16% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.75 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022, a 57.3% reduction. This decline in aggravated assaults has been a major factor in the overall reduction of violent crime in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a notable inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 9,154 people per square mile in 2010 to 9,728 in 2022, violent crime rates decreased. This suggests that the growing population has not led to an increase in crime, but rather coincided with improved safety.
Forecasting violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the consistent downward trend observed from 2010 to 2022, we can expect the total number of violent crimes to continue decreasing, potentially reaching single digits annually. If the current trends persist, we might see an average of 8-10 violent crimes per year by 2029, with robberies and aggravated assaults likely to be the most common, albeit at very low rates.
In conclusion, Bergenfield has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in public safety over the past decade. The substantial decrease in violent crimes, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults, coupled with extremely low rates of murder and rape, paints a picture of a community that has become increasingly secure despite population growth. This trend suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement in crime prevention, positioning the city as a model for urban safety improvement.
