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Bellville, Texas: Rising Aggravated Assaults Drive Violent Crime Trends
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bellville, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 13 in 2010 and ending at 25 in 2022, representing a 92.3% increase. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 8,757 to 9,001, a modest 2.8% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with only one recorded case in 2020 throughout the entire period. This translates to a murder rate of 0.11 per 1,000 people in 2020, which then dropped back to zero in subsequent years. The single murder in 2020 represented 0.06% of the state's total murders that year, indicating a minimal contribution to Texas's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. The number of reported rapes peaked at 8 in 2017 and again in 2022, up from 6 in 2010. This represents a 33.3% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.89 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.1% in 2010 and ending at 0.07% in 2022.
Robbery trends in the city have been inconsistent. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 4 over the years, with the highest count of 4 occurring in 2021. This represents a 300% increase from the single robbery reported in 2010. The robbery rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.11 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2021, before dropping to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies peaked at 0.02% in 2021.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. The number of cases rose from 6 in 2010 to 17 in 2022, a 183.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.69 in 2010 to 1.89 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, doubling its share.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,297 per square mile in 2010 to 3,388 in 2022, violent crimes also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between changes in racial distribution and crime rates, with the white population percentage decreasing slightly from 73% in 2017 to 69% in 2022 as violent crimes increased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall violent crimes if current trends persist. Aggravated assault is likely to remain the most prevalent violent crime, potentially reaching around 22-25 cases annually by 2029. Rape incidents may stabilize around 6-8 cases per year, while robbery and murder rates are expected to remain low but could see occasional spikes.
In summary, Bellville has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, primarily driven by rises in aggravated assault and, to a lesser extent, rape. While the overall numbers remain relatively low for a city of its size, the upward trend, particularly in aggravated assaults, warrants attention. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remains minimal, but local law enforcement may need to focus on strategies to address the rising assault rates to ensure community safety in the coming years.
