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Average Home Values and Ownership in Zip Code 95203: A Decade of Significant Changes in Stockton's Urban Core
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 95203, located in Stockton, California, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices over the past decade. This area, covering 6.87 square miles, has seen fluctuations in its population and housing market dynamics. The homeownership rate in zip code 95203 has shown a general decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, the percentage of owner-occupied homes was 39%, which decreased to 33% by 2017. However, there was a slight recovery to 37% by 2022. This trend coincides with notable changes in average home prices. The average home price in 2013 was $103,559, which steadily increased to $363,154 by 2022, representing a substantial 250% increase over this period. The inverse relationship between declining homeownership rates and rising average home prices suggests that increasing property values may have made homeownership less accessible for some residents in this area.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained very low, ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%. During this period, the homeownership rate in zip code 95203 declined from 39% to 33%, despite the favorable borrowing conditions. This suggests that other factors, such as rapidly increasing home prices, may have outweighed the benefits of low interest rates for potential homebuyers in this area. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), the homeownership rate stabilized and even showed a slight increase to 37% by 2019, which was maintained through 2022.
Renter percentages in zip code 95203 have generally increased as homeownership rates declined. The percentage of renter-occupied homes rose from 61% in 2013 to a peak of 67% in 2016, before settling at 63% from 2019 to 2022. Average rent prices have shown some volatility but with an overall upward trend. In 2013, the average rent was $960, which increased to $1,042 by 2016. After some fluctuations, it reached $1,025 in 2021 before slightly decreasing to $948 in 2022. The population of the zip code has remained relatively stable, with 15,264 residents in 2013 and 15,473 in 2022, suggesting that changes in renter percentages and rent prices are more likely due to shifts in the housing market rather than significant population changes.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in zip code 95203 for 2023 was $351,045, showing a slight decrease from 2022. However, in 2024, the average home price has increased to $355,012. Interestingly, federal interest rates have also risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates could potentially impact future homeownership rates and housing market dynamics in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 95203 will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace than seen in the past decade. The average home price could potentially reach around $400,000 by 2029. For average rent prices, the forecast suggests a continued upward trend, with prices potentially reaching approximately $1,200 per month by 2029. However, these projections are subject to various economic factors and market conditions.
In summary, zip code 95203 has experienced a notable decline in homeownership rates coupled with significant increases in average home prices over the past decade. Renter percentages have generally increased, with average rent prices showing an overall upward trend despite some fluctuations. The recent rise in interest rates and the slight cooling of home prices in 2023 may signal a shift in the housing market dynamics for this area in the coming years.
