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Average Home Values and Ownership in Zip Code 16502: A Decade of Growth Amidst Rental Dominance
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 16502, located in Erie, Pennsylvania, presents an interesting case study of housing dynamics in an urban setting. Over the past decade, this area has experienced notable shifts in homeownership rates and housing prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions. The homeownership rate in zip code 16502 has shown moderate fluctuations between 2013 and 2022. In 2013, the area had a 36% homeownership rate, which peaked at 39% in 2017 before settling at 34% in 2022. During this period, average home prices in the zip code demonstrated a significant upward trend. In 2013, the average home price was $61,543, and by 2022, it had risen to $88,026, representing a 43% increase over nine years. This trend suggests that while home values appreciated considerably, it did not translate into a higher rate of homeownership in the area.
Federal interest rates have played a crucial role in shaping homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained historically low, hovering around 0.1% to 0.4%. During this period, homeownership rates in zip code 16502 remained relatively stable, between 34% and 36%. As interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, we observed a slight decline in homeownership rates, dropping from 39% in 2017 to 34% in 2022. This inverse relationship aligns with the general trend of lower interest rates encouraging homeownership due to more affordable financing options.
Renter occupancy in zip code 16502 has remained the dominant housing arrangement throughout the observed period. The percentage of renters increased from 64% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. Interestingly, average rent prices have shown a steady increase during this time. In 2013, the average rent was $663, which rose to $821 by 2022, marking a 24% increase. This upward trend in rent prices, coupled with a growing renter population, suggests a strong demand for rental properties in the area, possibly driven by factors such as job market conditions or demographic shifts.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in zip code 16502 continued their upward trajectory, reaching $96,372 in 2023 and $105,483 in 2024. This represents a substantial 19.8% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact future homeownership trends in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast future trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 16502 will continue to appreciate over the next five years, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. We project average home prices could reach approximately $125,000 to $130,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially reaching $900 to $950 per month by 2029, driven by consistent demand for rental properties in the area.
In summary, zip code 16502 has experienced a significant increase in both average home prices and rent prices over the past decade, despite relatively stable homeownership rates. The area remains predominantly renter-occupied, with recent trends suggesting this pattern is likely to continue. The substantial rise in home values, coupled with increasing interest rates, may present challenges for potential homebuyers in the coming years, potentially reinforcing the rental market's strength in this zip code.
