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Average Home Values and Ownership in Zip Code 12565: Philmont's Changing Housing Landscape
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 12565, located in Philmont, New York, presents an intriguing case study of housing dynamics in a small community. Over the past decade, this area has experienced significant fluctuations in homeownership rates, coupled with notable changes in average home prices and average rent costs. The overall trend shows a shift towards renting, with homeownership declining from 73% in 2013 to 53% in 2022, while average home prices have steadily increased.
The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in zip code 12565 reveals some interesting patterns. In 2013, when homeownership was at its peak of 73%, the average home price was $127,624. As homeownership declined to 55% by 2017, average home prices rose to $143,538, indicating an inverse relationship. This trend continued, with homeownership hitting a low of 44% in 2018 while average home prices climbed to $156,741. By 2022, as homeownership slightly recovered to 53%, average home prices had surged to $256,983, marking a substantial 101% increase from 2013.
Federal interest rates appear to have played a role in homeownership trends in this zip code. The period from 2013 to 2015 saw historically low interest rates (0.11% to 0.13%), coinciding with higher homeownership rates of 73% to 57%. As interest rates began to rise in 2016 (0.40%) and continued upward, homeownership rates generally declined, reaching 45% by 2020 when interest rates dropped to 0.38% due to the pandemic. The slight recovery in homeownership to 53% by 2022 occurred despite rising interest rates, suggesting other local factors may have influenced this trend.
Renter percentages and average rent prices in zip code 12565 have shown a complex relationship. As the renter population increased from 27% in 2013 to 46% in 2022, average rent prices fluctuated. In 2013, the average rent was $1,033, peaking at $1,111 in 2014 when renters made up 33% of the population. Interestingly, as the renter percentage continued to rise, average rent prices generally decreased, reaching $807 in 2022. This trend might be influenced by the area's changing population, which varied from 382 in 2013 to 450 in 2022, potentially affecting housing demand and supply dynamics.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in zip code 12565 continued their upward trajectory, reaching $269,969 in 2023 and further increasing to $279,132 in 2024. This represents a 9% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates rose significantly to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially impacting homebuying affordability in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate average home prices in zip code 12565 to continue rising, potentially reaching around $320,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the consistent upward trend observed over the past decade. For average rent prices, the forecast suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase, possibly reaching about $850 per month by 2029, considering the recent fluctuations and overall economic factors.
In summary, zip code 12565 has experienced a shift towards renting, with homeownership rates declining despite rising average home prices. The interplay between federal interest rates, local population changes, and housing market dynamics has created a complex environment. The recent surge in home prices, coupled with rising interest rates, may continue to influence homeownership trends in the coming years. The rental market, while showing some price fluctuations, appears to be stabilizing, potentially offering more affordable options for residents in this evolving housing landscape.
