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Average Home Values and Ownership in Zip Code 12153: A Decade of Change in Averill Park
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 12153, located in Averill Park, New York, presents an interesting case study of homeownership and rental trends in a small community. This area has experienced significant fluctuations in its homeownership rates and average home prices over the past decade, while also seeing changes in its rental market.
The homeownership rate in zip code 12153 has shown a notable decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, the area boasted a high homeownership rate of 94%, which remained relatively stable until 2017. However, from 2017 onwards, there was a gradual decrease, with the rate dropping to 84% by 2022. Interestingly, this decline in homeownership coincided with a substantial increase in average home prices. The average home price in the area rose from $199,094 in 2013 to $303,880 in 2022, representing a 52.6% increase over this period.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in this zip code shows some correlation. As interest rates remained low from 2013 to 2016 (below 0.5%), homeownership rates stayed high at 94%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates started to decline. This trend aligns with the general expectation that higher interest rates can make home financing less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
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The rental market in zip code 12153 has shown an inverse relationship to homeownership trends. As homeownership rates declined, the percentage of renters increased from 5% in 2013 to 16% in 2022. Despite this increase in renters, average rent prices have remained relatively stable. The average rent was $1,202 in 2013 and $1,231 in 2022, showing only a modest 2.4% increase over the decade. This stability in rent prices, coupled with rising home prices, may have contributed to the shift towards renting for some residents.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in zip code 12153 continued to rise, reaching $317,383 in 2023 and $326,251 in 2024. This represents a 7.4% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have also increased significantly, rising to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates, combined with increasing home prices, may pose challenges for potential homebuyers in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 12153 will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. We project that by 2029, the average home price could reach approximately $375,000 to $400,000. For rent prices, we expect a moderate increase, with average rents potentially rising to around $1,400 to $1,500 per month by 2029.
In summary, zip code 12153 has experienced a shift from a predominantly homeowner community to one with an increasing renter population. This change has occurred alongside rising home prices and fluctuating interest rates. The stability of rent prices amidst these changes suggests a complex interplay of factors influencing housing choices in the area. As we look to the future, the community may continue to see a balance shift between homeowners and renters, influenced by evolving economic conditions and housing market dynamics.
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