The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Medford shows an interesting trend. Despite historically low interest rates from 2013 to 2021 (ranging from 0.08% to 0.4%), the homeownership rate remained relatively stable until 2018. However, as interest rates began to rise in 2022 to 1.68%, the homeownership rate paradoxically continued to increase, reaching 90%. This suggests that local factors may have played a more significant role in driving homeownership than national interest rate trends during this period.

Renter percentages in Medford have shown a corresponding decline as homeownership rates increased. In 2013, 19% of residents were renters, and this percentage remained relatively stable until 2018. However, from 2018 to 2022, the renter percentage dropped from 18% to 10%, mirroring the increase in homeownership. Average rent prices, on the other hand, have shown more volatility. In 2013, the average rent was $1,526, and it peaked in 2021 at $1,855 before decreasing to $1,552 in 2022. This recent drop in average rent prices, coupled with the declining renter percentage, suggests a shift in the local rental market dynamics.

Looking at the most recent data for 2023 and 2024, we see that average home prices in zip code 11763 have continued to rise. In 2023, the average home price reached $485,553, and in 2024, it further increased to $522,125. This represents a 7.5% year-over-year increase from 2023 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have also risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact future homeownership trends and affordability in the area.

Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Medford will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. By 2029, average home prices could reach approximately $650,000 to $700,000, assuming a conservative annual growth rate of 4-6%. Average rent prices may stabilize or show modest increases, potentially reaching around $1,800 to $2,000 per month by 2029, influenced by the continued preference for homeownership in the area.

In summary, Medford has experienced a significant shift towards homeownership, with rates increasing from 79% to 90% between 2013 and 2022. This trend has been accompanied by substantial growth in average home prices, nearly doubling over the same period. The rental market has seen a corresponding decline in the percentage of renters and some volatility in average rent prices. Recent data for 2023 and 2024 shows continued growth in home prices despite rising interest rates, suggesting strong local demand for homeownership. These trends paint a picture of a community undergoing significant changes in its housing market dynamics, with a clear preference for homeownership emerging in recent years.