Motor vehicle theft trends showed more variability. In 2010, there were 138 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 144 by 2019, a 4.3% rise. However, when adjusted for population, the rate remained relatively stable, moving from 0.71 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.72 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.56% in 2010 to 0.96% in 2019, suggesting that while the local rate remained steady, it worsened relative to the state average.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 31 arson cases, which decreased to 17 by 2019, a 45.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.16 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2019. However, the city's share of state arson cases decreased from 2.97% to 1.65% over the same period, indicating that arson reduction in Aurora was less pronounced compared to the state average.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $60,809 in 2013 to $84,578 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. For instance, total property crimes fell from 2,972 in 2013 to 2,014 in 2019 (the last year with complete data). This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Aurora may continue to decrease, albeit at a slower pace. Burglaries could potentially drop to around 150-180 cases annually, while larceny-theft might stabilize at approximately 1,400-1,500 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may show a slight increase, potentially reaching 160-180 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 10-20 cases per year.

In conclusion, Aurora has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. The inverse correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that economic improvements may have played a role in this positive trend. While motor vehicle thefts have shown some resistance to this downward trend, the overall picture is one of improving safety and security in the city. These trends, if continued, could position Aurora as a model for effective crime reduction strategies in medium-sized American cities.