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Arlington: Rising Home Values and Stable Ownership in the Shadow of D.C.
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Arlington, Virginia, is a vibrant urban community located just across the Potomac River from Washington, D.C. Known for its proximity to the nation's capital and home to notable landmarks such as the Pentagon and Arlington National Cemetery, this city has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. The ownership percentage has remained relatively stable, while average home prices and average rent prices have shown an upward trend.
The homeownership rate in Arlington has fluctuated slightly between 2013 and 2022, ranging from 41% to 45%. During this period, average home prices have steadily increased. In 2013, the average home price was $551,381, and by 2022, it had risen to $781,290, representing a 41.7% increase over nine years. Despite the rising home prices, the homeownership rate has remained relatively stable, suggesting that other factors, such as strong local employment and desirable urban amenities, may be contributing to sustained homeownership levels.
Federal interest rates have played a role in homeownership trends in Arlington. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.09% to 0.40%), the homeownership rate remained steady at around 44%. As interest rates began to rise in 2017 (1.00%) and 2018 (1.83%), there was a slight decrease in homeownership to 43%. However, even as interest rates continued to fluctuate, the homeownership rate in Arlington remained relatively stable, indicating that other local factors may have a stronger influence on homeownership decisions in this area.
The percentage of renters in Arlington has shown a slight increase over time, from 56% in 2013 to 59% in 2022. This trend has been accompanied by a rise in average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $1,820, which increased to $2,148 by 2022, representing an 18% increase over nine years. The growing renter population and rising rent prices may be attributed to factors such as job opportunities in the area, the transient nature of government and military personnel, and the city's appeal to young professionals.
In 2023 and 2024, Arlington continues to experience changes in its housing market. The average home price in 2023 was $778,759, showing a slight decrease from 2022. However, in 2024, the average home price has rebounded to $801,541, indicating ongoing volatility in the market. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may impact future homebuying decisions.
Looking ahead, based on historical trends and current market conditions, it is projected that average home prices in Arlington will continue to rise over the next five years, potentially reaching around $900,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially surpassing $2,500 per month within the same timeframe. These projections assume continued economic growth and sustained demand for housing in the area.
In summary, Arlington has maintained a relatively stable homeownership rate despite rising home prices, suggesting a resilient housing market. The renter population has grown slightly, accompanied by increases in average rent prices. The city's proximity to Washington, D.C., strong job market, and desirable urban amenities continue to drive demand for both owned and rented properties. As interest rates rise and housing prices fluctuate, the coming years may present new challenges and opportunities for both homeowners and renters in this dynamic urban community.
