Robbery incidents have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 14 robberies, which increased to 24 in 2022. This represents a change from 0.66 to 1.04 robberies per 1,000 people. The city's share of state robberies has grown from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that robbery has become a more significant issue in the city relative to state trends.

Aggravated assault cases have seen a substantial increase over the years. In 2010, there were 20 cases, which rose dramatically to 89 in 2022. This translates to an increase from 0.94 to 3.88 cases per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has also grown significantly, from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022. This trend suggests that aggravated assault has become a more pressing concern for the community.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime and the rising population density, which grew from 2,250 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,438 in 2022. Additionally, there's a potential link between changes in racial demographics and crime trends. The percentage of white residents decreased from 76% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 13% to 14%, and those identifying as two or more races grew from 4% to 7% during the same period.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Arcata may see total violent crimes increase to approximately 160-180 cases annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continuation of the observed growth rate in violent crimes and takes into account the city's population trends.

In summary, Arcata has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most notable increases have been in aggravated assaults and robberies, while murder and rape cases have shown more variability. These trends, coupled with changing demographics and increasing population density, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing the city's crime landscape. As Arcata continues to evolve, addressing these rising crime rates will likely become an increasingly important focus for local law enforcement and community leaders.