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Arcata's Property Crime Trends: A Decade of Change Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Arcata, located in California, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 648 in 2010, peaking at 841 in 2013, and ultimately decreasing to 537 in 2022, representing a 17.13% decrease over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 21,190 in 2010 to 22,964 in 2022, an 8.37% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 172 burglaries, which dropped to 58 in 2022, a substantial 66.28% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.12 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.53 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.09% in 2010, dropping to 0.05% in 2022. This decline suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed more variability. It peaked at 634 incidents in 2013 before decreasing to 351 in 2022, a 44.64% reduction from the peak. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 20.95 in 2010 to 15.28 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.08% and 0.12% throughout the period. This trend indicates that while larceny-theft remains a concern, its prevalence has been reducing relative to population growth.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited an increasing trend, rising from 32 incidents in 2010 to 128 in 2022, a 300% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.51 in 2010 to 5.57 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022. This trend is concerning and may suggest a need for targeted interventions in vehicle security and theft prevention.
Arson cases fluctuated over the years, with no clear long-term trend. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 6 in 2016 to a high of 21 in 2019, settling at 13 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people varied between 0.27 and 0.95. The city's proportion of state arsons showed significant variability, ranging from 0.09% to 0.34%, indicating that local factors may have a strong influence on arson occurrences.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and overall property crime rates. As median income increased from $43,185 in 2013 to $48,287 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trends, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to rise unless targeted interventions are implemented. Arson rates are likely to remain volatile but within the historical range.
In conclusion, Arcata has shown promising trends in reducing most types of property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The increasing trend in motor vehicle theft, however, presents a challenge that may require focused attention from law enforcement and community leaders. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a role in further crime reduction. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing the rise in vehicle thefts will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.
