Loading Content...
Antlers, Oklahoma: Fluctuating Violent Crime Trends Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Antlers, located in Oklahoma, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its violent crime rates and population. The total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from a high of 15 in 2011 to a low of 0 in 2019. Meanwhile, the population decreased from 4,569 in 2010 to 4,191 in 2022, representing an 8.3% decline.
Examining murder trends, Antlers reported only one case in 2015, accounting for 0.52% of the state's murders that year. With a population of 5,056 in 2015, this translates to a rate of 0.20 murders per 1,000 residents. The isolated nature of this incident makes it difficult to establish a trend, but it's notable that in all other years, the city reported zero murders.
Rape incidents in the city were sporadic and low in number. The highest reported cases were 3 in 2012 (0.22% of state total) and 1 case each in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 (ranging from 0.06% to 0.46% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2012 at 0.59. After 2016, no rape cases were reported, indicating a positive trend in this category of violent crime.
Robbery trends show minimal occurrences. The city reported 1 case in 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2015, representing 0.03% to 0.04% of state totals. In 2016, there were 2 cases (0.07% of state total), and in 2018, 3 cases (0.11% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at 0.62 in 2018. No robberies were reported from 2019 to 2022, suggesting a recent improvement in this area.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated, with peaks of 14 in 2011 (0.13% of state total) and 10 in 2014 (0.11% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents was highest in 2011 at 2.84. Recent years show a decline, with 9 cases in 2020 (0.08% of state total), 2 in 2021 (0.02%), and 4 in 2022 (0.04%). This indicates a general downward trend in aggravated assaults.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,469 per square mile in 2010 to 1,348 in 2022, violent crime rates showed an overall declining trend, despite some fluctuations. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Predicting violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) based on the available data is challenging due to the high variability in the historical data. However, if the recent trends continue, we might expect to see murders remaining at or near zero, rape cases continuing to be rare or non-existent, robberies potentially staying at zero or occurring very infrequently, and aggravated assaults possibly stabilizing at a low level, perhaps around 2-5 cases per year.
In summary, Antlers has shown an overall improvement in its violent crime situation over the studied period. The most significant changes have been the reduction in aggravated assaults and the elimination of reported rapes and robberies in recent years. While the single murder in 2015 was an anomaly, the city has otherwise maintained a murder-free record. These trends, coupled with the declining population, suggest that Antlers has become relatively safer over time, with violent crimes becoming increasingly rare occurrences.
