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Analysis of Violent Crime Trends in Cameron, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Cameron, located in Missouri, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 59.26%, from 27 to 11 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased slightly by 4.47%, from 12,665 to 12,099 residents.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently low, with only two recorded incidents in 2010 and 2015, representing 0.59% and 0.49% of the state's murders respectively. In all other years, there were no reported murders. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.16 in 2010 and 2015, dropping to zero in most years. This suggests that murder is an infrequent occurrence in the city, with no discernible trend relative to population changes.
Rape incidents have shown considerable variability over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 2 in 2010 to a peak of 12 in 2016, before declining to 2 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.16 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2016, then fell to 0.17 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.62% in 2016 before dropping to 0.09% in 2022. This indicates that while rape remains a concern, its prevalence has decreased in recent years both in absolute numbers and relative to state figures.
Robbery rates in the city have remained low throughout the period. The number of robberies peaked at 4 in 2016, representing 0.07% of state robberies, but in many years, including 2022, there were no reported robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.32 (in 2016) and was often zero. This suggests that robbery is not a significant issue in the city, with sporadic occurrences rather than a consistent trend.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated, peaking at 41 in 2017 (3.28 per 1,000 people and 0.23% of state assaults) before declining to 9 in 2022 (0.74 per 1,000 people and 0.05% of state assaults). This represents a 78.05% decrease from the 2017 peak to 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
There appears to be a correlation between violent crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,845 per square mile in 2010 to 1,762 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate also showed a downward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased slightly from 83% in 2013 to 86% in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that the city will continue to see a gradual decline in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. The number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to single digits annually, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common form of violent crime.
In summary, Cameron has shown an overall improvement in its violent crime situation over the past decade. The most significant changes have been the reduction in aggravated assaults and the maintenance of low murder and robbery rates. While rape incidents have fluctuated, they too have shown a decreasing trend in recent years. These improvements, coupled with slight changes in population density and racial composition, suggest a generally positive direction for public safety in the city.
