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Amtrak Neighborhood: Surging Home Values and Shifting Ownership Trends in San Bernardino
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
The Amtrak neighborhood in San Bernardino, California, has experienced significant shifts in its housing market over the past decade. This area, likely named for its proximity to Amtrak rail services, has seen notable changes in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices. From 2013 to 2022, the Amtrak neighborhood witnessed a substantial decline in homeownership rates, dropping from 66% to 50%. Concurrently, average home prices saw a dramatic increase. In 2013, the average home price was $96,968, which rose steadily to reach $386,715 by 2022, representing a 299% increase over this period. This inverse relationship suggests that rising home prices may have made homeownership less attainable for many residents.
Federal interest rates have played a role in these housing trends. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained low, hovering around 0.1% to 0.4%. During this period, homeownership rates in the neighborhood remained relatively stable, ranging from 66% to 67%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates declined more rapidly, falling from 62% in 2017 to 50% in 2022. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
As homeownership rates decreased, the percentage of renters in the Amtrak neighborhood increased from 34% in 2013 to 50% in 2022. Interestingly, average rent prices did not follow a consistent upward trend during this period. The average rent peaked at $1,281 in 2013, fluctuated over the years, and stood at $1,019 in 2022. This fluctuation in rent prices, despite the increase in the renter population, could be attributed to various factors including local economic conditions and housing supply changes.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in the Amtrak neighborhood continued to evolve. The average home price reached $402,295 in 2023 and further increased to $423,725 in 2024. These figures represent a continued upward trend in home values. Simultaneously, federal interest rates rose significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which are the highest rates seen in over a decade.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that the upward trend in average home prices is likely to continue over the next five years, potentially reaching or exceeding $500,000 by 2029. However, the rate of increase may slow down due to the higher interest rates. Average rent prices are projected to stabilize and potentially increase moderately, possibly reaching around $1,200 to $1,300 per month by 2029, as demand for rental properties may continue to grow if homeownership remains challenging.
In summary, the Amtrak neighborhood has experienced a significant shift from a predominantly owner-occupied area to an evenly split owner-renter community. This change has occurred against a backdrop of rapidly increasing home prices and fluctuating rent costs. The recent spike in interest rates may further impact these trends, potentially slowing home price growth but continuing to challenge prospective homeowners.
