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Alpine's Violent Crime Trends: Small Town Grapples with Fluctuating Aggravated Assault Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Alpine, located in Texas, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 6 incidents in 2010 to 8 in 2022, representing a 33.33% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 7,472 in 2010 to 7,996 in 2022, a 7.01% increase.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability. There were no murders reported in most years, but single incidents occurred in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021. This translates to a murder rate that fluctuated between 0 and 0.13 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city ranged from 0% to 0.11%, with the highest in 2014. These figures suggest that while murder is not a consistent problem, when it does occur, it has a significant impact on the city's crime statistics due to the small population size.
Rape incidents in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting either 0 or 1 case. The rape rate per 1,000 residents has varied between 0 and 0.13. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has consistently been around 0.01% to 0.02%, indicating that rape is not a major concern relative to state-wide statistics.
Robbery has been virtually non-existent in the city throughout the period, with zero incidents reported in all years for which data is available. This suggests that the city has been particularly safe in terms of this type of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated significantly, from a low of 2 in 2016 to a high of 15 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents has varied accordingly, ranging from 0.26 to 1.92. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has generally been between 0.01% and 0.03%, with the highest percentage in 2018.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,551 per square mile in 2010 to 1,660 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, although the relationship is not perfectly linear.
The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the Hispanic population showing a slight increase from 46% in 2013 to 49% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 50% to 48% over the same period. This demographic shift doesn't appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may experience a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 10-12 incidents annually. This prediction assumes that current trends and factors influencing crime rates remain relatively consistent.
In summary, Alpine has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. While murder and rape incidents have been sporadic, their occurrence significantly impacts the city's crime statistics due to the small population. The city's contribution to state-wide crime remains minimal across all categories. Moving forward, local law enforcement and community leaders should focus on strategies to address aggravated assault, which has shown the most variability and highest incidence among violent crimes in Alpine.
