Robbery trends in the city have shown some positive developments. The number of robberies decreased from 22 in 2010 to 10 in 2022, a 54.5% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.338 in 2010 to 0.144 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to the state's total robberies has been inconsistent, ranging from 0.81% in 2016 to a peak of 7.8% in 2021, before dropping to 1.38% in 2022. This indicates that while local efforts may have reduced robberies, the city's performance relative to the state has been volatile.

Aggravated assault has emerged as the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults increased from 71 in 2010 to 135 in 2022, a 90.1% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.091 in 2010 to 1.950 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults has also increased, from 1.15% in 2010 to 1.78% in 2022. This significant rise in aggravated assaults is concerning and suggests a need for targeted intervention strategies.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,549 people per square mile in 2015 to 1,649 in 2022, violent crime incidents rose correspondingly. Additionally, the median rent increased from $946 in 2015 to $1,183 in 2022, which coincides with the rise in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. This could suggest a potential link between economic pressures and crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a continued increase in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching around 180-200 incidents annually. Robbery rates are expected to stabilize at around 10-15 incidents per year. Rape incidents may fluctuate but are projected to remain in the 20-25 per year range. Murder rates are difficult to predict due to their low frequency but are likely to remain between 0-3 per year.

In summary, Shawnee has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, the significant increase in aggravated assaults is a major concern. The correlation between rising population density, increasing median rent, and violent crime rates suggests that the city's growth may be contributing to these trends. As the community continues to expand, addressing these crime trends, particularly aggravated assaults, should be a priority for local law enforcement and policymakers to ensure the safety and well-being of Shawnee's residents.